“I am really surprised there isn’t more outrage from Americans over the  Wikileaks releases,” said Joah. He meant the Apache helicopter video in particular. The soldiers in the video technically did follow the rules of engagement, but that’s just the point: war is by definition a suspension of the rules. War brings destruction, no matter how man tries to civilize it. “I believe,” said Trevor, “that video should be required viewing for every war supporter in the country.”

Iain piped in. “Diplomacy has required secrecy for thousands of years. It wasn’t just invented by Hillary Clinton. It goes back to the creation of the nation-state and even earlier. It is practically human nature. It is part of human culture. The really surprising thing was that more countries weren’t pissed off at the United States for allowing this info to leak.”

Is WL anti-statist? Are they anti-American?

“WL is for ‘us’,” said Russ. “It isn’t going to change anything in America.” In other words, these leaked documents are for the intellectual elite to mull over in their comfortable, wine-soaked evening discussions. Most Americans either don’t care or aren’t really aware of them.

“It is completely presumptuous and very arrogant for [Julian Assange] to think he knows better than career diplomats and foreign service personnel what ought and ought not to be classified,” said Pete. When questioned whether this wasn’t placing too much trust in the government, Pete emphasized the distinction between non-elected State Dept employees making careers in diplomacy, and unctuous politicians trying to get elected, blissfully unaware of the real workings of statecraft. “I would never trust an elected politician to make the right decision on any of this stuff,” he clarified. But things that can be revealed by these leaks, including the manner and method of US diplomacy, and the structure of the State Dept, are valuable and should be protected.

What about injured American pride? Isn’t there a sense of violation here, that our dirty American laundry has been hung out for the world to see? I think that is certainly part of the reason for the backlash against Wikileaks.

There must always be a balance between security and transparency. Between centralized power and democracy. Between honesty and lies. My own personal feeling is that, for too long, the balance has been skewed toward too much secrecy, and that a dose of exposure is necessary to right the balance. The media has been pathetic for at least a decade – and likely much longer – at acting as a check on government abuse of power. Wikileaks is upstaging them, and in the process showing them what is possible in investigative journalism based on primary source documents.

Jeremy said that we are entering a new era of transparency. Or perhaps a new era of journalism? Greg Mitchell, a writer at The Nation, has been live-blogging everything Wikileaks for nine weeks. He has also just put out a book, The Age of Wikileaks, which sounds like it’s about exactly this point.

Before the evening’s discussion split into its separate paths, Iain raised a question which I intend to explore in future posts: Can we stack the actions of Wikileaks, and the results of its releases, against the goals and ideals of the organization, and what will that show? It’s still early days, but I myself am looking forward to seeing how that question is answered.

Tuesday, February 1st, 8:30pm
DOC Wine Bar, 83 N. 7th St. in Williamsburg. (Cash bar only)

The Malacca Straits

The Free Aceh rebels, a separatist guerrilla group fighting against the Indonesian government, funded their insurgency, in part, through piracy. These pirates were much like those in the news today operating off the coast of Somalia. They used small but fast boats, lying in wait for large commercial vessels that had to pass through the narrow straits. Using the advantage of surprise, they would board these larger, slower ships with grappling hooks and rope ladders, then subdue the crew, using only a few men with AK-47s. We took up some time asking how this was even possible – how does one board an oil tanker from a small fishing boat? And the answer seemed to lie in the fact that many of the boats attacked are heavily laden, slow moving and often not adequately prepared for pirate attack.

The Aceh pirates were driving the governments of Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore mad, as they seemingly could not be stopped. Piracy resurged as a major international issue — amplified by the thought of Al Qaeda seizing a large vessel and setting off a spectacular attack, with a major impact on global shipping — but poor governance in Indonesia allowed piracy to flourish.

The Christmas 2004 tsunami put an end to it, wiping out the province of Aceh. It has been speculated that many of the rebels and a majority of their ships were destroyed. The remaining rebels called a ceasefire to allow aid to reach the area, and President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (aka: SBY) wisely used the disaster as a starting point for peace talks, which culminated in a 2005 treaty. The need to focus on rebuilding after the disaster, along with the better governance that effort demanded, caused a significant drop-off in pirate activity in the Malacca Straits. This is the key point: piracy flourishes in lawless environments.

What of the pirates themselves? Who are they? Typically the poor and afflicted, as you might expect. They usually have a grievance against their government. In Indonesia, the Aceh rebels fought for independence and control of the oil resources in their home province. Aceh is the most conservatively Muslim province in a country that mostly practices a much more mainstream, tolerant version of Islam. In Somalia, local fishermen have taken to piracy because there has been no functioning government for many years, no one to protect Somalia’s territorial waters from the massive illegal commercial fishing that has taken their livelihoods. In this way, it is easy to compare pirates to terrorists; some will argue that pirates are just a subset of terrorists, small independent groups using violence to attain their political goals. But for their own people, pirates might be seen as heroes in the Robin Hood vein, sharing their loot with the village. Or perhaps they are opportunistic criminals, what the  Malaysians call lanun, men who loot, plunder and pillage because that is what they do. When society has broken down, it is natural, after a certain amount of pressure, to take matters into your own hands.

Since steering around pirate-infested waters is often impossible, shipping companies have started defending themselves. The most obvious method is arming your ship, but this can have ill effects. Adding more weapons and warriors to the mix can inflame the situation. Companies sometimes insure their crews against kidnapping, but they tend to keep this information hidden, since anyone known to be insured instantly becomes a target: insurers are guaranteed to pay ransoms, right? Non-lethal methods like fire-fighting hoses to repel attackers, barbed-wire around the hull, or long-range acoustic devices to blast the ear-drums of marauders are some of the methods that shipping companies have adopted. There’s also the “strong room” (ever see Panic Room with Jody Foster?), in which crew can hide in the event of a pirate attack. Jeremy mentioned some of the advice his firm gives to clients, and related a few off-the-record incidents which can’t be repeated here. Sorry, folks, gotta show up to Junta for the good stuff!

The Somalia pirates might be concluding that their strategy is working. The fish stocks which some of them were originally defending from poachers are replenishing themselves as those poachers move to other waters. Kenyan sportfishing is on the rise. Which means that, despite the dramatic sniper-rescue by the Navy Seals earlier this year, we’ll continue to see attacks. Piracy will only be reduced with the establishment of functioning government, and that is sadly not looking likely in the near term with Somalia. As Jeremy detailed, the Islamist movement is increasingly balkanized and remains heavily armed; the centrist, transitional government in Mogadishu controls only a few city blocks, along with the port. It could fall at any moment. Considering all of this, together with the strong lack of appetite to intervene in any meaningful way (see “Blackhawk Down”), the forecast for Somalia and the Gulf of Aden remains grim.

Further bad news has come in the form of the pirate demands, about which there have been conflicting reports. The NY Times reported yesterday that the pirates are demanding the release of their confederates being held by various governments. If true that will really complicate any potential release.

We can discuss in greater detail at the Junta, but the captives would be in much better shape if the pirates were only interested in money. It also sounds like there is some feuding among the pirates and what to do with the couple.  The UK Mirror is reporting today that the pirates may substatially lower their ransom demands.

Jeremy will lead us in a post-Halloween discussion of piracy, its history and geopolitical background. Jeremy currently provides risk mitigation solutions to shipping companies who operate in areas where piracy is a problem, and he used to cover the issue as a journalist. Here is a piece he wrote for the South China Morning Post on pirates in the Malacca Strait. [PDF]

Maritime piracy is currently most widely known off the coast of Somalia, in the Gulf of Aden. But it is also a problem in the waters off the coasts of Nigeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia and elsewhere. It is a problem that has been with us with for hundreds of years. This recent excellent piece in the New Yorker is a great historical overview and also provides some insight into the culture of pirates.

The conventional wisdom is basically that these guys should be blown out of the water. But a closer look reveals a more nuanced problem than just bloodthirsty criminals out to plunder and kill. In Somalia, piracy has been a result of the breakdown of the Somali state and inability for any central government to protect local waters from illegal fishing. With their livelihoods threatened, local fisherman realized that they could make money hijacking ships and demanding ransom from the companies that own them. Typically these pirates aren’t killing anyone; in fact, they tend to treat their hostages rather well.

Much as with other problems, unless the root causes of piracy are addressed, no just solution will be reached. We’ll talk about how the example of the Straits of Malacca supports that argument. Once one of the most pirate-infested waters in the world, many of the pirates were wiped out in the tsunami of 2006. The Indonesian government smartly capitalized on a unique moment to establish peace with the Aceh rebels, who used piracy to fuel the insurgency, and piracy has fallen off significantly since then. A lasting solution—though possibly far-off—is probably the only way to solve the Somalia problem.

Somalia is getting worse though as it suffers from an Islamic insurgency that is threatening to topple the weak central government. That insurgency is being fed by jihadists who are exiting the Afghan/Pakistan region due to pressure from drone strikes and the Pakistani army and are moving holy war to other areas. Will Al Qaeda be able to regroup in Somalia with pirates providing a valuable financial lifeline? Will they revisit the plans they coveted once in the Malacca Straits to execute a spectacular attack that would cripple global shipping, this time in the Gulf of Aden? We’ll use the piracy question as a precursor to talk about lawlessness, terrorism and the breakdown of nation-states.

The venue will be China One, 50 Avenue B, between 3rd and 4th street. China One has really good (and organic) Chinese food for decent prices, so a bit of eating this time as well.