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In a rare glimmer of good news out of the wasteland of Somalia, it looks like Al Shabab, the brutal Islamist group trying to take over Somalia, is losing ground. Props to Jeffrey Gettleman on actually being brave enough to report from Mogadishu.

I noted at the end of the story that Shabab is having problems funding their jihad. Junta members/readers will recall our talk and posts on piracy. The conventional wisdom is that the pirates are not in cahoots with Shabab, though some money probably changes hands. The pirates would not want to align themselves too closely with a terrorist organization because that would possibly put them out of business, either in the form of military intervention or governments really applying pressure to forbid paying a ransom (which, if it is was to Shabab, would violate the Patriot Act). But when ruthless groups get desperate they turn to whatever means necessary to raise money. So I would watch whether Shabab gets more in piracy. Similarly, there was a very interesting piece in Forbes entitled Is al Qaeda Bankrupt? It looks at some of the ways that al Qaeda has tried to keep up funding (kidnapping, drug trafficking, extortion) in light of effective financial measures put in place to curb terrorist financing.

Articles al Qaeda, global jihad, Shabab, somalia

Robert Baer, formerly a CIA operative, published a book in 2008 called The Devil We Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower, which I’m reading in preparation for our meeting next week. His theory is that Iran is rising and has imperial ambitions, that it has basically been at war with the United States for 30 years, and that the Iranians have already “half-won” the war. While America sees a country in the grips of Islamic fundamentalism, Baer says that underneath the religious veneer is nationalism and “a deep, abiding defiance of colonialism.” While we have been concerned with preventing Iran getting nuclear weapons, they have perfected the art of warfare by proxy, defeating Israel in Lebanon and hampering our own efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

What it comes down to is this: Iran is the most powerful and stable country in the Middle East – a country the United States must either fight in a new thirty-year war or come to terms with.

I wouldn’t throw around the “superpower” label as easily as Baer, but he’s really using it as a rhetorical device. And he makes a key point early on (and I’m sure I’ll have more to say about this as I continue reading). The US has unwittingly aided Iran’s rise by smashing its chief rival: Saddam Hussein’s Sunni-dominated Iraq. Baer believes that Iran has designs on Iraq’s oil, which if they came to pass, would see Iran producing more oil than Saudi Arabia. Not likely to happen soon – but remember that we will eventually have to withdraw our troops from Iraq, while Iran will remain right next door. The Saudis may be seeing the future that Baer envisions, because they’ve started making efforts at rekindling relations with Iran.

Baer talks about visiting the Nabatiyah martyr’s school in Lebanon, where the Iranian proxy Hezbollah trains children to become suicide bombers. He had come as a journalist (after retiring from the CIA) making a documentary, and listened to the teacher of a girls’ class explain why martyrdom is so important in Shia Islam. And yet when Baer asked the girls if they watched American TV, they all giggled and said they loved Oprah.

The sooner we understand how a girl from Nabatiyah’s martyrs’ school can watch Oprah, then strap on a suicide bomber’s vest and blow herself up in the middle of an Israeli patrol, the better prepared we’ll be to face what’s coming our way.

Meetings global jihad, hezbollah, iran, iraq, lebanon, saudi arabia, usa

I went to a talk last night by Richard Holbrooke at the Council on Foreign Relations in DC last night. My firm is a member and I attend these events regularly in NY and last night was one of my favorites. Holbrooke is one of the most polished diplomats I’ve heard speak and he spoke with true fluency on the issues.

Holbrooke said he was willing to answer questions about the military surge and the reasoning behind it, but stressed that his portfolio was on the civilian side of the Afghanistan/Pakistan issues. He said that he thought for years aid to Pakistan has been unbalanced, with a heavy bias towards military aid and not enough focused on civilian programs that will ameliorate the virulent anti-Americanism so widely prevalent there and help develop what is a shockingly backwards country.

Holbrooke insisted on introducing the 17 members of his team that occupied much of the first 2 rows on one side. People snickered a bit at this insistence, and some clearly thought it was a politician wasting time, but I thought it was extremely interesting to see the multi-disciplinary nature of his team, which has essentially every major US government office involved, aside from the CIA (though they were well represented in the crowd).

Two of the best moments were by journalists asking questions (which isn’t always the case at the CFR, where most of the talks are off-the-record). The first was by a Pakistani journalist from the Pakistan Spectator who practically leaped out of his seat to get the attention of Michael Gordon, the moderator and NY Times correspondent. The guy wanted to essentially declare that nothing would happen in the area unless the Kashmir issue was resolved and what was he doing about it. He spastically tried to lump in several questions but was cut off by Gordon. Holbooke was originally supposed to have Kashmir as a part of his portfolio but when the Indians got wind of it they went ballistic and it was taken away from him. The Indians freak out over perceived outside interference in the Kashmir question. Holbrooke, the cool character, told the dorky Pakistani that he “wasn’t working on the issue” and then moved on.

Shortly after that Pam Constable, who covers Aghanistan for the Washington Post, asked rather despondently if the US government was actually serious about trying to improve Afghan society and painted it in rather hopeless terms, referring to the “defiant self-destruction” that she claims to witness regularly there. Holbrooke, again Mr. Smooth, said that he was surprised to see Pam there, that he has only met her once but admires her reporting greatly and always asks for her when he’s in Kabul but is always told she’s out reporting from the hinterlands. He proceeded to tell her why the US was going to be succesful, and had a number of really interesting insights into the agricultural programs that the US is pushing now in Afghanistan, many in place of the opium destruction, which he called counter-productive as they drive farmers into the arms of the Taliban. He also pointed out that even in the US we have “defiant self-destruction.”

I wanted to try to introduce myself to Holbrooke at the end. Two friends of mine last year bought his former house in the Hamptons and I wanted to see what reaction I could get out of him if I mentioned some of the shenanigans that go on there regularly now. Unfortunately, I wasn’t the only one who wanted a word with Richard and it didn’t happen.

Articles afghanistan, global jihad, pakistan, richard holbrooke